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    Not investment advice. All content on this site is generated by AI and may be inaccurate. Do your own research. Learn more

    AI Research Pipeline

    We collect SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q), financial statements, and recent news for each stock. An LLM then analyzes this evidence to generate probabilities, scenarios, and risk assessments.

    What We Generate:

    • • Outlook & Probabilities: 12-month up/down/flat probabilities with expected return range, quantifying directional conviction
    • • Stance & Summary: Overall Bullish/Neutral/Cautious stance with a plain-language summary of the investment thesis
    • • Drivers & Risks: Key upside catalysts and downside risks, so you understand what factors to monitor
    • • Scenario Analysis: Multiple future scenarios (upside, base, downside) with probabilities, triggers, and expected outcomes - helping you mentally prepare for different paths
    • • Volatility Metrics: Quantitative measures of expected price movement (daily moves, 30-day bands, gap risk) to help with position sizing

    Scenario Analysis Explained

    Rather than a single point prediction, we generate multiple scenarios to help you think through different outcomes. Each scenario includes its probability, what would trigger it, expected returns, potential drawdowns during the journey, and recovery outlook.

    Base Case Scenario

    The most probable outcome if current trends continue without major surprises. Typically has the highest probability and represents the market's implicit expectation.

    Upside Scenarios

    Positive outcomes with their triggers (e.g., "AI spending accelerates"), probability, and expected return range. Helps you understand what's already priced in vs. genuine upside.

    Downside Scenarios

    Risk scenarios with triggers, probability, expected loss range, and crucially - the potential drawdown during the journey. A stock might end down 20% but drop 40% along the way. Knowing this helps with position sizing and stop-loss planning.

    Recovery Analysis

    Each downside scenario includes recovery outlook: Cyclical (business intact, 1-3 year recovery expected), Uncertain (depends on external factors), or Structural (competitive position damaged, may not recover). This helps you decide whether to hold through drawdowns or cut losses.

    Volatility Metrics Explained

    Expected Daily Move (EDM, %)

    Median absolute daily price change in typical market conditions. Represents the model's estimate of normal day-to-day volatility without major catalysts.

    30D Band (80% confidence)

    80% confidence interval for price movement over the next 30 days. Reflects the model's near-term volatility assessment based on current conditions.

    Gap Risk Index (0-100)

    Scaled probability (0-100) of experiencing an overnight price gap of ≥3% within the next 30 days. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of sudden price movements.

    Event Window Band (\u00B17 days)

    When a known catalyst (earnings, FDA approval, etc.) is approaching, this shows the expected price range during the \u00B17 day window around the event, reflecting event-specific uncertainty.

    12M Drawdown p95 (%)

    Single-episode peak-to-trough decline that is unlikely to be exceeded 95% of the time over a 12-month period. Represents tail risk assessment for significant downturns.

    Technical Implementation

    Model Configuration

    • • Model Version: 1.0.0
    • • Prompt Version: 1.2.0
    • • LLM (as of Jan 23, 2026): gpt-5 (OpenAI)
    • • Confidence Definition: Model certainty in assessment

    Data Sources

    • • Regulatory filings and company reports
    • • Market pricing data
    • • Earnings call transcripts
    • • Reputable financial news and investor relations materials

    Important Limitations & Warnings

    Not Investment Advice

    These assessments are for informational research purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, recommendations, or inducements to buy or sell securities.

    Key Limitations:

    • • Model opinions may be inaccurate, incomplete, or outdated
    • • Based only on publicly available historical information
    • • Cannot predict unprecedented events or sudden market shifts
    • • Does not consider your personal financial situation or risk tolerance
    • • Past information or modelled scenarios are not reliable indicators of future results
    • • Volatility estimates may not capture extreme market conditions

    Professional Advice: Always consult with qualified financial advisors before making investment decisions. Consider your own circumstances, risk tolerance, and investment objectives.

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