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    About & Methodology

    Understanding our LLM-based research approach

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    LLM-Only Research Approach

    Our platform uses large language models (LLMs) to analyze publicly available financial information and generate research assessments. The model reads through SEC filings, earnings transcripts, and reputable financial news to form opinions about stock outlook probabilities and volatility characteristics.

    What We Generate:

    • Outlook Probabilities: 1M/12M timeframe assessments (Up/Down/Flat)
    • Stance Classification: Constructive, Neutral, or Cautious overall view
    • Volatility Metrics: Five quantitative measures of expected price movement
    • Risk Assessment: Key upside drivers and downside risks

    Volatility Metrics Explained

    Expected Daily Move (EDM, %)

    Median absolute daily price change in typical market conditions. Represents the model's estimate of normal day-to-day volatility without major catalysts.

    30D Band (80% confidence)

    80% confidence interval for total return over the next 30 days. Reflects the model's assessment of likely trading range based on current fundamentals and market conditions.

    Gap Risk Index (0-100)

    Scaled probability (0-100) of experiencing an overnight price gap of ≥3% within the next 30 days. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of sudden price movements.

    Event Window Band (±7 days)

    When a known catalyst (earnings, FDA approval, etc.) is approaching, this shows the expected price range during the ±7 day window around the event, reflecting event-specific uncertainty.

    12M Drawdown p95 (%)

    Single-episode peak-to-trough decline that is unlikely to be exceeded 95% of the time over a 12-month period. Represents tail risk assessment for significant downturns.

    Technical Implementation

    Model Configuration

    • Model Version: llm-mvp-0.3
    • Prompt Version: p-2025-09-26
    • Evidence Threshold: Minimum 3 sources
    • Confidence Definition: Model certainty in assessment

    Data Sources

    • SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q, 8-K)
    • Earnings call transcripts
    • Reputable financial news outlets
    • Company investor relations materials

    Important Limitations & Warnings

    Not Investment Advice

    These assessments are for informational research purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, recommendations, or inducements to buy or sell securities.

    Key Limitations:

    • Model opinions may be inaccurate, incomplete, or outdated
    • Based only on publicly available historical information
    • Cannot predict unprecedented events or sudden market shifts
    • Does not consider your personal financial situation or risk tolerance
    • Past information or modelled scenarios are not reliable indicators of future results
    • • Volatility estimates may not capture extreme market conditions

    Professional Advice: Always consult with qualified financial advisors before making investment decisions. Consider your own circumstances, risk tolerance, and investment objectives.