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    Amazon.com Inc

    Neutral
    AMZNRetail

    Company Description

    Amazon runs large online stores, a marketplace for third-party sellers, and a fast delivery network for customers worldwide. It also runs Amazon Web Services (AWS), which sells cloud computing, storage, databases, and AI tools to businesses. Amazon earns advertising revenue from sponsored listings and streaming content. It also operates physical stores and sells devices like Kindle and Echo.

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    Outlook

    Expected 12M Return

    Return:7.5%
    Range:-15.0% to +25.0%

    12M Probabilities

    Up:46%
    Down:28%
    Flat:26%

    Key Metrics

    Confidence:78%
    Evidence:18 sources
    Updated:01/22/2026

    Analysis

    Financial health looks solid: the company has more cash than debt and can comfortably afford its interest payments. The main watch-outs are heavy spending on data centers and logistics, large lease commitments, and a recent one-time gain that boosted reported earnings; the latest quarter also included sizable legal and severance charges. Growth is healthy—sales rose around the low teens with AWS up 20%—but the stock isn’t cheap on EV/EBITDA and forward P/E, so it needs continued strong execution to work. Net-net, we see modest upside over 12 months with balanced risks, and we’d stay disciplined around earnings updates and any signs of slower cloud demand or rising regulatory costs.

    Upside Drivers

    • AWS growth could accelerate above 20% as companies spend more on AI infrastructure and data services
    • Advertising on Amazon’s stores and video could lift profits by making more money per visit
    • Further logistics and fulfillment automation could improve profit per order
    • International retail moving toward profitability could add incremental earnings

    Downside Risks

    • Heavy spending on data centers and logistics, plus large lease commitments, could keep cash after expenses weak
    • New fines, legal settlements, or tougher rules could hit profits and distract management
    • A weaker consumer or tougher competition in retail could squeeze profit on each sale
    • Cloud price competition from Microsoft and Google could slow AWS growth and pressure margins

    Scenario Analysis

    Estimates to help you think through potential outcomes. Tap any row for details.

    Volatility Assessment

    Expected Daily Move (EDM)

    1.7%

    Median typical 1-day absolute move

    30D Band (80% confidence)

    -9.0% / +12.0%

    30-day total return range

    Gap Risk Index

    35

    Likelihood of ≥3% overnight gap (30d)

    Upcoming Event Window

    Earnings
    01/25/2026 - 02/08/2026

    Implied move: -12.0% / +16.0%

    Data Sources

    Information sources used to generate this analysis