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    Tesla Inc

    Cautious
    TSLAAutomotive

    Company Description

    Tesla designs and sells electric cars (Model 3, Model Y, Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck) and provides related services such as charging and maintenance. It also sells energy storage products like Powerwall for homes and Megapack for commercial and utility customers. The company markets software features such as Full Self-Driving subscriptions and has launched a ride-hailing service using its robotaxi technology in select areas. Tesla sells directly to customers and operates a global service and charging network.

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    Outlook

    Expected 12M Return

    Return:2.0%
    Range:-35.0% to +30.0%

    12M Probabilities

    Up:35%
    Down:40%
    Flat:20%

    Key Metrics

    Confidence:78%
    Evidence:18 sources
    Updated:02/03/2026

    Analysis

    Tesla’s story has shifted toward AI-driven services and robotaxi, while energy storage is growing fast, but the hard numbers show pressure: profit per car has fallen, EPS is down year over year, and operating margins have slid even as revenue recently bounced. The balance sheet is strong with plenty of cash and little debt, so there’s no solvency worry, but the stock is priced for near-perfect execution with a Price earnings ratio around 270 and very high EV-to-cash flow. If robotaxi and software take longer to monetize, or if price cuts persist in cars, the risk is that earnings stay muted and the valuation comes down. Energy strength and cost work could help, but with margins under pressure and heavy AI spending, the risk/reward over 12 months skews cautious despite the long-term vision [10-K, press release, and Q3 commentary support the pivot and cost pressure narrative].

    Upside Drivers

    • Robotaxi rollout expands beyond initial markets and starts to deliver meaningful high-margin service revenue
    • Energy storage deployments (Megapack/Powerwall) scale further, lifting revenue and steadier profits
    • Cost reductions and refreshed Model 3/Y improve profit per vehicle even without big price hikes

    Downside Risks

    • Ongoing price cuts and tough competition in key regions squeeze profits more than expected
    • Heavy AI and autonomy spending continues while revenue from those efforts lags, keeping earnings weak
    • Tariffs or regulatory actions hit energy and international auto sales, pressuring growth
    • The stock’s very high Price earnings ratio compresses if growth or autonomy milestones slip

    Scenario Analysis

    Estimates to help you think through potential outcomes. Tap any row for details.

    Volatility Assessment

    Expected Daily Move (EDM)

    3.2%

    Median typical 1-day absolute move

    30D Band (80% confidence)

    -18.0% / +22.0%

    30-day total return range

    Gap Risk Index

    65

    Likelihood of ≥3% overnight gap (30d)

    Data Sources

    Information sources used to generate this analysis